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[SV] John Talbott/'Sell Now!' The End of the Housing Bubble

[Evening Event, Palo Alto] John Talbott's latest effort in warning of the coming housing crash bluntly advises owners to liquidate in a hurry. Raising the stakes from his previous best-seller....

Short excerpts selected from the book are available here:
Excerpt 1: (1) Is this a short soundbite or a longer conversation? (2) How conflicted are your information providers on this topic?
Excerpt 2: Do housing prices only ever go up, as homeowners in California are quick to point out?


John Talbott's latest effort in warning of the coming housing crash bluntly advises owners to liquidate in a hurry. Raising the stakes from his previous best-seller (The Coming Crash in the Housing Market), Talbott argues housing prices could plummet by as much as 50 to 60% in some cities over the next five to seven years--and San Jose and San Francisco come in at 48% and 50% respectively on that list! This will be a hit that is felt on an international level and will cascade into larger economic problems: more job losses and a weaker banking infrastructure. As a guide for the average homeowner, this book is a convincing argument broken down into laymen's terms.

Join the Wharton Club of Northern California on Thursday, April 27th at 5:30pm as we present a talk by John Talbott and a round of what we anticipate will be "spirited Q&A."

Date: Thursday, April 27th
Time: 5:30-6:30pm. Reception with appetizers. 6:30-8:00pm. Presentation and Q&A
Place. Palo Alto Research Center (PARC) Directions 3333 Coyote Hill Road, Palo Alto, CA 94304
Fee. $35 each for WCNC members and their accompanied guest(s). $55 each for non-member alumni and other guests. $35 each for members of affiliate clubs. $10 additional after 5:00pm, Monday, April 24th and for day-of-event registrations, if available. Cancellation after 5:00pm, Monday, April 24th at the discretion of the WCNC.
Register online for the evening event in Palo Alto. [Note: click here if you wish to register for the luncheon event in San Francisco.]
Copies of the book are available for $10 each but must be ordered by April 18th at 6:00pm. Click here to order a copy of the book and pick it up at the Palo Alto evening event.

John Talbott is an ex-Goldman Sachs investment banker, and his book reflects it. Sell Now! The End of the Housing Bubble is a data-driven and analysis-rich thesis that convincingly debunks all the current theories that--at least on face value--provide a rationale for our recent boom in housing prices. These theories include such popular ideas as:

- Housing prices have always gone only one way--particularly here in the Bay Area--and that's up, up, and up...so that's the only way they are likely to go in the future.
- Immigration and population growth have been supporting house prices and will continue to fuel house price increases.
- Tax benefits make it cheaper and smarter to own than rent.
- Zoning restrictions are a key reason why prices have stayed up and will continue to stay high in areas such as San Francisco.
- Housing can't go down as long as the economy remains strong.
- People have to live somewhere, and this will keep prices rising or at least stable.
- Construction costs cause home price increases.
- Home prices are higher because incomes are higher
- Finally--and one many local buyers frequently cite--there is a limited supply of real estate here in the Bay Area.

The data and analysis give unexpected answers to each of these. Talbott will also discuss what he believes is the real cause of the housing bubble...and no, it's not "irrational buyers."

Register now to reserve your seat for Thursday, April 27th!

John Talbott
John R. Talbott is a former investment banker and vice president for Goldman Sachs in New York City and recently a Visiting Scholar at UCLA’s Anderson School of Management in Los Angeles. He writes full time now about finance, economics, politics and society. He has published important empirical academic research concerning the significant role democratic and capitalist institutions play in promoting economic growth and prosperity in both the advanced and developing world. John has advised a number of developing countries including Jordan and Russia on how they might improve their economic and political institutions to garner greater economic growth and defeat poverty.

His first book, The Coming Crash of the Housing Market, published by McGraw Hill in May 2003 was an Amazon.com and Business Week bestseller and accurately predicted problems in the U.S. residential mortgage market and at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, America’s largest mortgage institutions.

Sell Now! The End of the Housing Bubble, was released in January 2006 by St. Martin's Press and offers an insightful analysis of what is actually driving home prices around the world to such unsustainably high levels.

John has appeared live on CNN, Fox News, CNNfn, CNBC, CBS Marketwatch and in print in the Wall Street Journal, the Boston Globe and the Financial Times. His books have been reviewed in the Wall Street Journal and the Los Angeles Times and he has spoken live on numerous nationally syndicated radio programs.

John graduated from Cornell University with a BS in Civil Engineering and worked for Bechtel Corporation in engineering and construction before returning to get his MBA from The Anderson School at UCLA where he majored in finance.

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