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Big Surprises of the Next Decade that You Should be Planning

Peter Schwartz, Cofounder and Chairman, Global Business Network

How does our nation approach the challenges of a post-9/11 world? Geopolitically, the world we live in today is fundamentally different than the one we lived in six months ago.

How do you, as a leader in your organization, deal with a business environment that was volatile and uncertain even before September 11?

The technology market freefall and September 11th shattered our late 1990's view of business as a pleasant, continually upward trending graph. Scenario planning offers an important and rigorous tool to create new ways of thinking, learning, and planning for the future.

"Big Surprises of the Next Decade that You Should be Planning for Today"
An Evening with Peter Schwartz, Cofounder and Chairman, Global Business Network

Presented by The Wharton Club of Northern California
Thursday, January 10, 2002 from 5:30 - 8:00pm
Cocktail reception and appetizers 5:30 - 6:30pm
Lecture: 6:30 - 8:00pm
St. Francis Yacht Club, San Francisco
$40 for WCNC members; $50 for non-member alumni and guests
$10 additional charge for day-of-event registrations, if available

Scenario planners at Shell Oil used scenarios successfully to anticipate--and profit from--the oil price crashes of 1972 and 1986 and perestroika, the gradual opening up of the USSR under Gorbachev in the 1980's. Developing scenarios generated novel and relevant insights, illuminated possible implications, and produced robust strategies across a range of possible futures. Importantly, scenarios also changed executives' mental maps about the world and set in motion an ongoing process of learning and strategic conversation.

Join us for this exclusive presentation from the father of modern scenario planning, Peter Schwartz. Peter will discuss topics such as:

* "inevitable surprises" in key political, socio-economic, and military realms that you should be planning for over the next 10 years
* identifying your company's crux issue
* exploring the external environment
* applying scenario processes
* the art of strategic conversation

About Peter Schwartz
Peter Schwartz is cofounder and chairman of Global Business Network http://www.gbn.org. He is an internationally renowned futurist and business strategist. A specialist in scenario planning, Peter works with corporations and institutions to create alternative perspectives of the future and develop robust strategies for a changing and uncertain world. His current research and scenario work encompasses energy resources and the environment, technology, financial services, telecommunications, media and entertainment, aerospace, national security, and the Asia-Pacific region. Peter recently briefed the CIA and the Hart-Rudman "Commission on National Security/21st Century" on the threat of terrorism.

From 1982 to 1986, Peter headed scenario planning for the Royal Dutch/Shell Group of Companies in London. His team conducted comprehensive analyses of the global business and political environment and worked with senior management to create successful strategies. Before joining Royal Dutch/Shell, Peter directed the Strategic Environment Center at SRI International. The Center researched the business milieu, lifestyles, and consumer values, and conducted scenario planning for corporate and government clients.

Peter is the author of The Art of the Long View (Doubleday Currency, 1991; audio tape, 1995; paperback, 1996). This seminal publication on scenario planning has been translated into multiple languages and was selected as the number-one business book of 1992 by Industry Week. He is at work on two books, one on the coming "Long Boom" of global openness, prosperity, and discovery, and another on corporate social responsibility. Peter also co-authored Seven Tomorrows: Toward a Voluntary History with James Ogilvy and Paul Hawken (Bantam Books, 1982), and The Emergent Paradigm: Changing Patterns of Thought and Belief with James Ogilvy (SRI, 1979). He has published and lectured widely and writes the "Scenarios" column for Red Herring. He served as a script consultant on the films Deep Impact, War Games, and Sneakers. Peter received a BS in aeronautical engineering and astronautics from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.

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